Hit enter to searchOverlay or ESC to close

The two Singaporean real estate funds to buy now – MoneyWeek

admin

Obviously,whenassessingwhichoffersthebestvalue,weneedtotakeotherthingsintoaccount–theoverallriskinessofeachReit,thesteadinessofitsrents,itspotentialgrowthandsoon。

Ifyouwantasteady,secureincome,A-ReitandSuntecareprobablybest。

A-Reithasalarge,diversifiedportfolioofindustrialandwarehouse/logisticspropertyinSingapore。

SuntecsmainassetisretailandofficespaceinSunteccity,aprimedevelopmentinSingaporesCentralBusinessDistrict。

Ascottwillbethemostgearedtoglobalgrowthandthemostvolatile。

FirstownsthreehospitalsinIndonesia,withrentspeggedtoboththehospitalsrevenuesandinflation。

Thatmakesitaplayongrowthaswell–sincewealthierIndonesianswillmeanmoredemandforhealthcare–butinasteadierwaythanAscott。

Alonger-termvaluationmethod

Ofcourse,wecantrytomakethingsmoresophisticated。

SinceReitsareaboutcashflowanddividends?

onewaytovaluethemisthroughdiscountedcashflowanalysis。

Thisinvolveslookingatthefuturepaymentswecanexpectanddiscountingthembacktoapresentvalue,basedonthefactthatacertainpaymenttodayisworthmoretousthantheprospectofoneinayearstime。

So,forexamplewithadiscountrateof10%,£100nowand£110inayearhavethesamevaluetous。

However,calculatingwhatacompanyisworthisaveryinexactbusiness。

Itinvolvesmanyassumptions,andaslightlydifferentoutcomecanmakeabigdifference。

BenjaminGraham,thefatherofvalueinvesting,advisedthatinvestorsshouldfocusontryingtoidentifyarangeofpossiblevaluationsforthestockinstead。

Inotherwords,yougiveuptryingtobepreciseandsettleforanapproximation。

Then,byusingconservativeassumptionsandbuyingatorbelowthebottomoftherange,investorscangivethemselvesamarginofsafetyandhopefullyavoidovervaluedstocksasmuchaspossible。

Withthatinmind,howdowegoaboutcalculatingroughlywhattheseReitsmightbeworth?

Letsstartbyestimatingalong-termgrowthrate。

Imgoingtoassume1。

5%ayearforA-ReitandSuntecand4%ayearforAscottandFirst。

ThatmightsoundlowgiventhatweexpectAsiatogrowmuchfasterthanthatoverthenextfewdecades。

Butoneofthebiggestinvestingmistakesistoprojectrecentgrowthratesoffintothefuture–overlyoptimisticassumptionslikethatarewhyinvestorsendupoverpayingforgrowth。

Veryfewcompaniescanmaintaindouble-digitgrowthforlongperiodsoftime。

Overthelong-term,mostestablishedcompaniesseemtogrowearningsatlessthanGDP。

Wealsoneedtochoosethediscountrate,whichneedstoreflecttheriskinessandcertaintyofthosefuturedividends。

Usingadifferentdiscountratecanmakeabigdifferencetothefairvaluethatyoucomeoutwith,butchoosingthemisaverysubjectivedecision。

Personally,Ilookatthecompanysaveragecostofdebt–around3。

75%-4%forA-Reit,AscottandSuntecandaround5。

5%-6%atpresentforFirst。

Asastartingpoint,Idoublethis,thenmake(subjective)adjustmentsbasedonhowsteadythecompanysearningsare,howlongatrackrecordthefirmhasandotherriskssuchasthethreatofcompetition。

So,forA-Reit,withitslarge,diversifiedportfolio,Ithinkadiscountrateof7。

5%isacceptable。

Suntecislessdiversifiedandshouldprobablyrequireaslightlyhigherrate–Illuse8。

5%。

Ascotthasmuchgreaterearningsvolatilityandisalsopotentiallymorevulnerabletocompetition。

RivalscaneasilyputupnewservicedapartmentsinhotmarketsastheyredoinginBeijingandShanghai;Ascottsmainadvantageisitsbrand。

Forthisreason,Iduseahigherdiscountrateof11%。

Finally,Firstscurrentcostofdebtisprobablyoverstatedbecauseofthecrisis,butithasconcentrationrisks–allthreeofitshospitalsareleasedtoonecompany。

Arateof11%looksreasonablehereaswell。

A-ReitandFirstnowlookthebestSingaporeanReits

Sotakingthesenumbers,wecancalculatethediscounted(present)valueoftheirfuturestreamofdividends。

Theresastandardmathematicalformulatodothiscalledtheconstantgrowthdividenddiscountmodel,whichisprice=dividend/(discountrate–growthrate)。


bckbet是什么软件_bck网址_bck体育扫码下载